On the final Premier League matchday of the season, it is all about the race for the Champions League.

Aston Villa are one of five teams still in with a chance of clinching a spot in Europe's top competition next term, but with just three points separating third from seventh, there is so much to play for.

Villa will start the day in sixth, and are one of three teams, along with Newcastle United and Chelsea, on 66 points, with their inferior goal difference currently keeping them out of the top five.

They travel to Manchester United, who will be disappointed after missing out on their own Champions League qualification.

United lost the Europa League final 1-0 to Tottenham Hotspur at San Mames on Wednesday, snuffing out their last hopes of finishing the season on a high by clinching the trophy and a place in Europe.

They are already consigned to their lowest Premier League finish, currently sitting 16th in the table, just above their Europa League conquerors, but Ruben Amorim will want to sign off with a win at Old Trafford on Sunday.

But Villa have a lot on the line in this game and will want to avoid any kind of upset against their struggling hosts.

Here, we delve into the best Opta insights ahead of Sunday's clash.

What a Final Day we have in store

Who will secure themselves a top 5 finish and qualify for the Champions League? pic.twitter.com/glwwoAZbTH

— Premier League (@premierleague) May 20, 2025

What's expected?

Champions League qualification is out of Villa's hands as they need favours from elsewhere, and anything short of a win might not be enough for them.

They were held to a 0-0 draw by United earlier this season, with neither side able to find any attacking rhythm in the stalemate at Villa Park.

Villa have earned eight points from their last seven Premier League games against United (W2 D2 L3), as many as they had in their previous 31 (W1 D5 L25).

However, United have won 40 Premier League games against the Villans.

Only the Red Devils themselves have ever beaten an opponent more often, beating Everton 42 times in the competition.

Given the huge gulf between the teams this season – Villa sit 27 points above United in the table – the visitors are expected to earn the points on Sunday.

The Opta supercomputer gives Villa a 51.8% chance of victory at Old Trafford.

United's hopes of signing off their dismal season with a win, meanwhile, sit at 24.9%, with the likelihood of a draw being 23.3%.

From bad to worse

Amorim said after their Europa League final defeat that he would walk away from the club if that is what the board wanted, but he would not quit. Reports suggest that this will not be his final match in the Old Trafford dugout, though.

Brennan Johnson's 42nd-minute goal sealed their fate on Wednesday, and though they showed some late fight, it was not enough to force extra time.

Wednesday marked the 31st time in all competitions that United have conceded the opening goal of the game in 2024-25, more than any other Premier League side.

It was their 20th defeat in all competitions this season, their most in a single campaign since losing 22 in 1973-74 when they were relegated from the top flight.

That cannot happen this year, but United can only finish as high as 14th, depending on what happens on the final day. But no matter what, it will be their lowest-ever placing in the Premier League.

United are currently on an eight-match winless streak in the top-flight (D2 L6), losing the last three in a row. It is their longest run without a league win since November 1989 and January 1990 (11), while they last lost four in a row in the same season back in February 1979.

If their losing streak does stretch on, it will see them record their 19th Premier League defeat. They have not lost as many as half of their games in a single league season since 1933-34 (22/42 in the second tier), while they last did so in the top flight in 1930-31 (27/42).

They will also finish the league season without winning two matches in a row – it is only the third time in the club's history that they have gone an entire league campaign without winning back-to-back games (also in 1893-94 and 1921-22).

On a more positive note for Amorim, only Arsenal (23) have won their final Premier League game of the season more often than United (22), while they also have the lowest loss rate of any team to compete in at least 10 campaigns (12.5% - 4/32).

All or nothing

As mentioned, Villa are relying on results elsewhere but they still have a job to do at Old Trafford if they want to stay in the mix, especially with Nottingham Forest and Chelsea facing one another at the City Ground.

The turnaround in the last three months has been impressive, with Villa barely on the fringes of the European places before they stormed back into contention.

They can finish anywhere between third and seventh, but are given a 42.6% chance of finishing inside the top five.

However, that is slightly lower than their chances of finishing sixth (42.9%), their current position in the table.

Villa are in good form, winning nine of their last 11 Premier League games (L2), just one fewer than opponents United have won all season (10).

In fact, since the start of March, Villa have won 24 points in the Premier League from their nine games (W8 L1), more than any other side in that period.

Overall, they have won 19 league matches this term and could win 20+ in consecutive top-flight campaigns for the first time since 1930-31 (three in a row).

Their 2-0 win over Tottenham last time out marked Emery's 100th Premier League game in charge, with the Spaniard enjoying 54 wins, eight more than any other Villa boss in their first 100 top-flight matches.

But he knows the next one could be the most important, but history is not on Villa's side on the last day of the season, when away from home.

They have won just once on the last 26 occasions that their final league game of the season has not been played on home turf (D7 L18), winning 3-1 at Chelsea in 2001-02.

After finishing last season with a crushing 5-0 defeat at Crystal Palace, it is up to Villa to write a more positive ending this time around.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes

Bruno Fernandes is United's top scorer in the Premier League this season with eight goals.

The last time the Red Devils failed to have a single player reach double figures in a single top-flight campaign was 1973-74, when Sammy McIlroy was their top scorer with six.

In an otherwise disappointing campaign, he has often provided the spark for United.

He has 36 goal involvements in all competitions (19 goals, 17 assists), with 17 of those coming in the Premier League (also nine assists).

Aston Villa – Morgan Rogers

Morgan Rogers has more Premier League assists than any other Villa player this season (10).

Only three players have ever provided more in a single campaign for the Villans – Ashley Young in 2007-08 (14), Ollie Watkins in 2023-24 (13) and James Milner in 2009-10 (12).

That haul has come from an expected assists (xA) tally of 5.24, while he has created 52 chances overall, with only Youri Tielemans (60) making more.

All of those chances have come from open play, and are at least 16 more than any other Villa player.